Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Fuels Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid

A mere two months prior when the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were an indicator or the source for Villa's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

The Sideline Explosion of Elation

On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. After the in-form star curled home his second to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery discarded his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?

That’s a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.

According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team which has put together ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – but currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against United.

Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more shots and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.

A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.

  • The centre-forward could start scoring again.
  • The attacking talent may rediscover the player he was during his peak.
  • The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like an essential player for the national team.

This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.

Pamela Garcia
Pamela Garcia

Lena is a seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in betting strategies and statistical modeling.